Recession seems to be imminent in the US. Its length & severity now need to be judged by policy makers so that they may attempt to minimise the damage

IIPM INTERNATIONAL - NEW DELHI, GURGAON & NOIDA

Is it a ‘Recession or a Slowdown’ in the land of Uncle Sam? The debate rages on in earnest. Leave aside the fact that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines recession as “a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade…” What matters the most is the fact that the US is suffering from one of the worst housing and financial crises in living memory. The ongoing crisis may not adhere to the definition as given by NBER; yet the outlook for US economic growth, employment figures et al has worsened in the last couple of months and the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out. The financial market crisis, which erupted in August 2007, is worrying one and all.

The analogy drawn, however, has been debated by economists and analysts alike. Is the economy in a short-lived, cyclical recession or will there be a capitalist economic crash? As it is, the devastating 1929 stock market crash leading to the Great Depression of the 1930s silenced similar debates at that time.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), though not very vocal of the present developments in the US (as it was during the East Asian Crisis), has said in its recently published World Economic Outlook, “The financial market crisis that erupted in August 2007 has developed into the largest financial shock since the Great Depression, inflicting heavy damage on markets and institutions at the core of the financial system.” It further estimates that the total losses for banks, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds arising out of the crisis will swell to $945 billion. Even the estimates have been a point of debate; some argue that it is pretty much an accurate estimate of the loan losses while others argue that the estimates do not in any way reflect possible decline in the quality of the loans that they hold.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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BERNARD ARNOLD - Defining luxury

IIPM INTERNATIONAL - NEW DELHI, GURGAON & NOIDA

BERNARD ARNOLD
Defining luxury
LVMH is one of the earliest brand that came to India and slowly, the brand has become a recognised brand among the Indian premium class. The credit should not be only given to the chairman and CEO Bernard Arnold because as far as my knowledge about LVMH goes, there is immense teamwork there. But yes, if the leader is not competent enough and fails to guide his team, then no team, especially in business, can grow. I think the Chairman knows how to identify the market and then make a proper team for that market. He identified India & China much before any other players did and then supported the markets with a good team.

Today LVMH has an edge over the other luxury brands. To speak about the future, we all know India is an emerging market for all luxury brand and the early movers will necessarily be the winners. In this parameter LVMH will be one of the few players which will able to make profits from India. This definitely means that Bernard Arnold has big plans for India and the way LVMH is expanding, at least one of its brands will be present in every city of India. I feel, Arnold and his team will have the maximum retail presence and maximum brands in Indian market. He has successfully integrated various famous classical brands into the LVMH umbrella and he knows the perfect time to introduce them in Asia Pacific. The success of LVMH will motivate other luxury companies to come to India and this in turn will help India shine in the century in context of luxury goods too.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
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beginning of the end?

IIPM INTERNATIONAL - NEW DELHI, GURGAON & NOIDA

There has been talk of an al Qaeda resurgence, but the truth is that most hard-core members of the first and second waves have been killed or captured. The survival of the social movement they inspired relies on continued inflow of new members. But this movement is vulnerable to whatever may diminish its appeal among the young. Its allure thrives only at the abstract fantasy level. The few times its aspirations have been translated into reality – Taliban in Afghanistan, parts of Algeria during civil war, and Iraq’s Anbar Province – were particularly repulsive to most Muslims.

What’s more, a leaderless social movement is permanently at the mercy of its participants. As each generation attempts to define itself in contrast to its predecessor, what appeals to the present generation may not appeal to the next. A major source of the present appeal is the moral outrage provoked by the invasion of Iraq. As the Western footprint there fades, so will the appeal of fighting it. And new hotheads will always cause ever escalating atrocities, which will, in turn, likely alienate potential recruits.

The US strategy to counter this terrorist threat continues to be frozen by the horrors of 9/11. It relies more on wishful thinking than on deep understanding of the enemy. The pursuit of “high-value targets” directly involved in the 9/11 operation over six years ago was an appropriate first step. And the US has been largely successful in degrading the capability of al Qaeda Central. But this strategy will backfire when used against the leaderless jihad. Radical Islamist terrorism will never disappear because the West defeats it. Instead, it will most likely disappear for internal reasons. The key is to accelerate this process of internal decay. This needn’t be a long war, unless US policy makes it so.

Terrorist acts must be stripped of glory and reduced to common criminality. Most aspiring terrorists want nothing more than to be elevated to the status of an FBI Most Wanted poster. Younis Tsouli boasted online a few months before his arrest, “I have the Feds and CIA, both would love to catch me. I have (an) MI6 on my back.” Any policy or recognition that puts such people on a pedestal only makes them heroes in each other’s eyes. They aspire to nothing more glorious than to fight uniformed soldiers of the sole superpower. That’s why the struggle against them must be given to collaborative law enforcement. The military should be limited to denying terrorists a sanctuary.

It is equally crucial not to place terrorists arrested or killed in the limelight. The temptation to hold press conferences to publicise another “major victory” against terror must be resisted. The US underestimates the value of prosecutions, which often can enormously demoralise radical groups. There’s no glory in being taken to prison in handcuffs. No jihadi Web site publishes such pictures. Arrested terrorists fade into oblivion; martyrs live on in popular memory.

This is very much a battle for young Muslims’ hearts and minds. The point is to regain the international moral high ground. There’s been a gradual shift to online networks, where young Muslims share their hopes, dreams, and grievances. That offers an opportunity to encourage voices that reject violence.

The entire debate must shift from imagined glory to very real horror. Young people must learn that terrorism is about death and destruction, not fame. The voices of the victims must be heard over the bragging and posturing in online jihadist forums. Only then will the leaderless jihad expire, poisoned by its own toxic message.

For more articles, Click on IIPM Article.

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
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IIPM Ranked No. 1 B-School In Global Exposre - Zee...
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