beginning of the end?

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There has been talk of an al Qaeda resurgence, but the truth is that most hard-core members of the first and second waves have been killed or captured. The survival of the social movement they inspired relies on continued inflow of new members. But this movement is vulnerable to whatever may diminish its appeal among the young. Its allure thrives only at the abstract fantasy level. The few times its aspirations have been translated into reality – Taliban in Afghanistan, parts of Algeria during civil war, and Iraq’s Anbar Province – were particularly repulsive to most Muslims.

What’s more, a leaderless social movement is permanently at the mercy of its participants. As each generation attempts to define itself in contrast to its predecessor, what appeals to the present generation may not appeal to the next. A major source of the present appeal is the moral outrage provoked by the invasion of Iraq. As the Western footprint there fades, so will the appeal of fighting it. And new hotheads will always cause ever escalating atrocities, which will, in turn, likely alienate potential recruits.

The US strategy to counter this terrorist threat continues to be frozen by the horrors of 9/11. It relies more on wishful thinking than on deep understanding of the enemy. The pursuit of “high-value targets” directly involved in the 9/11 operation over six years ago was an appropriate first step. And the US has been largely successful in degrading the capability of al Qaeda Central. But this strategy will backfire when used against the leaderless jihad. Radical Islamist terrorism will never disappear because the West defeats it. Instead, it will most likely disappear for internal reasons. The key is to accelerate this process of internal decay. This needn’t be a long war, unless US policy makes it so.

Terrorist acts must be stripped of glory and reduced to common criminality. Most aspiring terrorists want nothing more than to be elevated to the status of an FBI Most Wanted poster. Younis Tsouli boasted online a few months before his arrest, “I have the Feds and CIA, both would love to catch me. I have (an) MI6 on my back.” Any policy or recognition that puts such people on a pedestal only makes them heroes in each other’s eyes. They aspire to nothing more glorious than to fight uniformed soldiers of the sole superpower. That’s why the struggle against them must be given to collaborative law enforcement. The military should be limited to denying terrorists a sanctuary.

It is equally crucial not to place terrorists arrested or killed in the limelight. The temptation to hold press conferences to publicise another “major victory” against terror must be resisted. The US underestimates the value of prosecutions, which often can enormously demoralise radical groups. There’s no glory in being taken to prison in handcuffs. No jihadi Web site publishes such pictures. Arrested terrorists fade into oblivion; martyrs live on in popular memory.

This is very much a battle for young Muslims’ hearts and minds. The point is to regain the international moral high ground. There’s been a gradual shift to online networks, where young Muslims share their hopes, dreams, and grievances. That offers an opportunity to encourage voices that reject violence.

The entire debate must shift from imagined glory to very real horror. Young people must learn that terrorism is about death and destruction, not fame. The voices of the victims must be heard over the bragging and posturing in online jihadist forums. Only then will the leaderless jihad expire, poisoned by its own toxic message.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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